McMahon, McCabe, Fajkus, and King highlight players to watch
April 26, 2018 by Aaron Howard in Analysis, Preview with 0 comments
Yesterday we published win, top-5, and top-10 probabilities for players competing in the 2018 Glass Blown Open. These probabilities are based on Elo ratings, which we introduced a few months ago. The probabilities for who stands a good chance of winning are not all that surprising (for example, Paige Pierce and Ricky Wysocki, and Paul McBeth), but other aspects are very interesting. In this preview, we investigate a few of them.
One variable in the win probability model is regarding how players performed at the tournament in the previous year. Some of the more astute of you will note that both the Open and Open Women’s divisions are playing on different courses than last year, which may diminish the importance of this variable for this tournament. However, the model was built using many years of data,1 including tournaments that switched courses from one year to the next, so this type of issue is, in a way, baked into the model. In addition, things like climate, season, and geography are similar for a given tournament independent of which specific courses are used, lending further credence to the inclusion of this variable in the model.
Performance at last year’s tournament greatly improved the win probabilities for last year’s winners McBeth and Pierce, but it also improved the probabilities for those that we do not consider frontrunners, such as JohnE McCray and Jennifer Allen. Both players outperformed their PDGA ratings in the weather-shortened tournament and significantly improved their Elo ratings. Other strong performers from last year, Chris Clemons, and Des Reading, each have a 14.2- and 33.6-percent chance, respectively, to finish in the top-10 this year.
Another variable in the model is a player’s current Elo rating. Pierce (by a lot!) and McBeth (by very little!) have the highest ratings in each division, respectively. But if you had been able to see the Elo ratings at the start of this year and how they have changed since then, you would notice that Eagle McMahon stands out. He has played very well this season, and despite playing one fewer DGPT tournament (he skipped the WACO), he has the second highest proportionate increase in Elo rating at over 3-percent,2 which equals over 50 ratings points and a 65-percent increase in win probability. Based on how McMahon’s Elo rating has improved in the early part of 2018 — due to his strong play — his top-5 and top-10 probabilities have gone up 53- and 42- percent respectively.
This model also serves to remind us of some very good players who, occasionally, remain just outside of the lead and chase cards at high-profile events. Two players that fall into this category are Eric McCabe and Elaine King. Both do not tour as much as they used to, but they still compete at a high level, to say the least. The model gives McCabe an 18-percent chance to finish in the top-10 and King a 35-percent chance to do the same.
With Pierce, Catrina Allen, Sarah Hokom and Valarie Jenkins in attendance, breaking into the top-5 will be a challenge. Jessica Weese and Madison Walker are both building off of strong finishes in recent tournaments, and some A-Tier wins. Weese has a 30.8-percent chance to do it, while Walker’s is 12.1, based on the model. Both players, however, have a strong likelihood of a top-10 finish. Lisa Fajkus is the only player in the division outside of the top four with better than 50-percent odds to break into the top-5.
Elsewhere, in the Open division, Joel Freeman and Nate Perkins have both had their share of strong performances early this season. Based on the model, both players have a roughly 10-percent chance at a top-10 finish. That puts each player inside a group of the top 30 players with the best chances to finish inside the top 10.
These are just a few players that these probabilities highlight at this year’s GBO. What other players stand out to you in the full rankings below? If you spot anything interesting, share it in the comments section.
| Player | Elo Rating | Change In Elo | Win Prob. | Top-5 Prob. | Top-10 Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul McBeth | 2004.9 | 13 | 24.7 | 82.9 | 93.4 |
| Richard Wysocki | 2004.3 | 10.9 | 22.7 | 80.7 | 92.5 |
| Nathan Sexton | 1774.7 | 12 | 3.5 | 32.9 | 57.7 |
| Jeremy Koling | 1797.7 | 8 | 3.5 | 32.1 | 57.1 |
| Simon Lizotte | 1764.3 | 10.9 | 3 | 29.1 | 53.4 |
| Nathan Doss | 1784.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 27 | 51.1 |
| Paul Ulibarri | 1790 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 26.7 | 50.9 |
| Philo Brathwaite | 1768.3 | 8 | 2.6 | 26.2 | 49.9 |
| Nikko Locastro | 1785 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 25.7 | 49.5 |
| Devan Owens | 1755.1 | 8 | 2.3 | 23.8 | 46.6 |
| Eagle McMahon | 1723.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 15.5 | 33.9 |
| Drew Gibson | 1706 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 12.5 | 28.5 |
| Johne Mccray | 1670.2 | 8.8 | 1 | 12.6 | 28.4 |
| Gregg Barsby | 1679.9 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 11.5 | 26.5 |
| James Conrad | 1616.5 | 8.6 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 18.7 |
| Eric McCabe | 1629.3 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 17.9 |
| Zach Melton | 1646.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 16.8 |
| Austin Turner | 1601.5 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 14.9 |
| Chris Clemons | 1567.4 | 11 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 14.2 |
| Dustin Keegan | 1628.9 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 13.2 |
| A.J. Risley | 1591.8 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 12.7 |
| Seppo Paju | 1622.1 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 12.4 |
| Peter McBride | 1603.5 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 10.5 |
| Nate Perkins | 1565.9 | 6.4 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 10.9 |
| Henrik Johansen | 1595.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 10.5 |
| Eric Oakley | 1583.6 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 10.6 |
| Matt Bell | 1568.2 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 4 | 10.1 |
| Joel Freeman | 1560.3 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 9.8 |
| Zackeriath Johnson | 1579.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 9.3 |
| Austin Hannum | 1538.6 | 7.4 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 9 |
| Jordan Castro | 1548.9 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 8.9 |
| Chris Dickerson | 1581.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 8.7 |
| Miles Seaborn | 1530.9 | 8.4 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 8.9 |
| Alex Russell | 1540.1 | 6.6 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 8.7 |
| Andrew Presnell | 1547 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 8.6 |
| Patrick Blazek | 1550.7 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 8.3 |
| Kyle Webster | 1544.7 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 8.4 |
| Emerson Keith | 1546.9 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 8.3 |
| Chris Eads | 1519.9 | 9 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 8.3 |
| Zachary Newhouse | 1514.4 | 8.9 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 7.9 |
| Cooper Arnold | 1523 | 7.4 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 7.8 |
| Weston Isaacs | 1531.9 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 7.4 |
| Isaac Heinen | 1518 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 6.9 |
| Coby Guice | 1500 | 8.9 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 6.9 |
| Jake Lauber | 1526 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 6.4 |
| Kevin Jones | 1544.5 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 6.2 |
| Grady Shue | 1542.6 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 6.1 |
| Shawn Sullivan | 1509.5 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 6.2 |
| Joshua Anthon | 1542.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 6 |
| Lance Brown | 1542.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 6 |
| Jerome Knott | 1513 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 6 |
| Nick Wood | 1538.9 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.9 |
| Jeff Renner | 1538.3 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.8 |
| Garrett Gurthie | 1538 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.8 |
| Steven Jacobs | 1500 | 6.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 5.9 |
| Ziggy Bierekoven | 1535.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.7 |
| Benjamin Wiggins | 1500 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 5.8 |
| Jacob Mott | 1511.3 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 5.6 |
| Billy Engel | 1517.7 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 5.6 |
| Noah Meintsma | 1528.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 2 | 5.3 |
| Crispin Carrasco | 1500 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 5.4 |
| Jeffrey Bryk | 1507.3 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2 | 5.3 |
| Ryan Orton | 1508.9 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 2 | 5.2 |
| Henry Dissell | 1505.8 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 2 | 5.2 |
| Benjamin Callaway | 1523.8 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 5.1 |
| Ryan Nyc | 1504.6 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2 | 5.1 |
| Colten Montgomery | 1530.9 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 4.9 |
| Robbie Olson | 1504.6 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 4.8 |
| J.C. Kester | 1515 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 4.7 |
| Bartosz Kowalewski | 1514.8 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 4.7 |
| Preston Johnson | 1514.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 4.6 |
| Cameron Sheehan | 1513 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
| Rick Steehler | 1506.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
| Thomas Gilbert | 1511.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| Michael Florey | 1510.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| Dylan Horst | 1510.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| Ryan Anderson | 1507 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| Christian Olsen | 1502.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| Bryan Freese | 1507.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 4.4 |
| Tristan Lucerne | 1506.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Kesler Martin | 1506.8 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Russell Jessop | 1506.7 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Peter Bures | 1503.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Coda Hatfield | 1505.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Nate Metzler | 1505.6 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Chris Tellesbo | 1505.4 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Robert Craig | 1504.4 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| Brandon Cawthorne | 1512.8 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| Ralf Rogov | 1503.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| Marshall Blanks | 1503.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| Tommy Arianoutsos | 1503 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| Stephen Schroeder | 1502.6 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| Micah Funderburgh | 1502.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.1 |
| Cody Taplin | 1501.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.1 |
| Richard Little | 1501.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.1 |
| Ryan Knuth | 1502 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.1 |
| Jason Hebenheimer | 1500.8 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.1 |
| Justin Bilodeau | 1500.7 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.1 |
| Dominic Vassari | 1500.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Tommy Agent | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Nathan Allton | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Jacob Armbrust | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Jesse Buchanan | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| AJ Carey | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Linus Carlsson | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| James Chamberlain | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Curtis Cooper | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Johan Davidsson | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Steven Dodge | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Joe Dirt Douglass | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Magnus Dunder | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Jeremy Farnsworth | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Cody Greenfield | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Jeremy Harvey | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Ryan Heeti | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Tanner Helm | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| James Hufford | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Tyler Jessop | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| David Johansen | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Viktor Johansen | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Ashton Kroenlein | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Fletch Kuehne | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Marion Kull | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Jake Lazzo | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Lee Letts | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Zane Letts | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Joseph Lowe | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Ricardo Martinez | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Andrew Marwede | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Kyle McClure | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Sam Michaels | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| J.C. Mitchell | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Jared Neal | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Cory Obermeyer | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Brendan Orwig | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Roderick Plumley | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Lucas Potts | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Nichles O. Potts | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Cody Prugger | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Chris Richard | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Nicholas Rowton | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Kevin Shaffer | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Brian Shintaku | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Mario Short | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| George Smith | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Ben Stafford | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Justin Starks | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Henrik Vännström | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Robin Villman | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Nick Whited | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Andrew Wiler | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Trevor Wilkerson | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Ryan Wilking | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Chris Wojciechowski | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Seth Wood | 1500 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Slim Belcher | 1499.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| John Jones | 1499.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Alex Berg | 1499.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Alan Wagner | 1498.7 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Tim Mitchell | 1498 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Taylor Pennington | 1498 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Daniel Lindahl | 1497.4 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Nick Lopez | 1497.3 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| David Potts | 1497.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| William Lister | 1496.6 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Tyler Jeffery | 1496.6 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Joseph Bruno | 1496.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Zachary Hardham | 1496.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Benjamin Smith | 1495.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Chris Zagone | 1495.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Landen Fledderjohn | 1494.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Cory Winant | 1494.6 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Matt Jackson | 1494.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Nick Walker | 1493.8 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| Jonathan Fletcher | 1493.3 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| Brandon Oatman | 1503.7 | -2.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Nicholas Duran | 1500.3 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Sean Jumbo Slice Roggiero | 1490.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Andrew Dominguez | 1490.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Thomas Malone | 1488.7 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.6 |
| Brock Shepherd | 1503.2 | -2.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Daniel Sweet | 1494.6 | -1.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Brian Cole | 1503.8 | -4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.3 |
| Cory Sharp | 1494 | -5.3 | 0.1 | 1 | 2.8 |
| Player | Elo Rating | Change In Elo | Win Prob. | Top-5 Prob. | Top-10 Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Pierce | 1708.1 | 10.5 | 39.8 | 99.7 | 99.9 |
| Catrina Allen | 1667 | 7.9 | 28.5 | 98.2 | 99.6 |
| Sarah Hokom | 1618.4 | 3.8 | 11.2 | 82.8 | 96.6 |
| Valarie Jenkins | 1589.3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 58.4 | 90 |
| Jessica Weese | 1564.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 30.8 | 76.1 |
| Lisa Fajkus | 1563.7 | 15.1 | 1.4 | 66.7 | 86 |
| Jennifer Allen | 1559.6 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 36.2 | 76.3 |
| Madison Walker | 1541 | 0 | 1 | 12.1 | 53.7 |
| Zoe Andyke | 1530.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 8.2 | 43.5 |
| Paige Bjerkaas | 1530.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 10.8 | 46.6 |
| Melody Waibel | 1527.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 8.3 | 42.2 |
| Nicole Bradley | 1522.4 | 0 | 0.5 | 6.1 | 36 |
| Elaine King | 1522 | 0 | 0.5 | 6 | 35.6 |
| Karina Nowels | 1518.4 | 0 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 32.5 |
| Ellen Widboom | 1517.2 | 0 | 0.4 | 5 | 31.5 |
| Rebecca Cox | 1513.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 29.6 |
| Des Reading | 1509.8 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 8.4 | 33.6 |
| Vanessa Van Dyken | 1506.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 23.1 |
| Nicole Dionisio | 1503.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 21 |
| Tina Stanaitis | 1502.7 | -3 | 0.3 | 2 | 18.3 |
| Kona Star Panis | 1501.3 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 19.8 |
| Emily Beach | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Andrea Meyers | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Missy Gannon | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Sarah Gilpin | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Erin Griepsma | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Christina Linthicum | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Colleen Thompson | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Angelina Videtto | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Sydney Wallenfelsz | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Jennifer Wheeling | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Nicole Young | 1500 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 19 |
| Sai Ananda | 1499.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 18.7 |
| Denise Cameron | 1497.3 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 16 |
| Kristy Moore | 1494.7 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 16.1 |
| Marla Tuttle | 1494.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 2 | 15.9 |
| Kaylee Kincaid | 1493.3 | -9.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 10 |
| Kelly Tucker | 1493.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 15.3 |
| Lauren Butler | 1492.7 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 15 |
